Rockets, Space transport roundup

Roundup: Reusable rocket vehicles – May.8.2024

Below is a collection of news and updates on reusable rocket powered vehicles in operation and in development. See also these previous roundups:

Such technology should eventually lead to space transports with aircraft-like operation. That is, orbital flight and return followed by rapid reflight with minimal preparation. Vehicles should fly thousands of times with only occasional refurbishment and, most importantly, spacefare should fall to levels similar to long distance airfare.

In the decades following the launch of Sputnik 1, missile derived expendable launchers dominated and progress towards reusable transports moved at a slow crawl. The one major attempt at reusablity, the Space Shuttle, was a major disappointment, providing no reduction in space transport costs due to the lengthy refurbishment and component replacements after each flight. However, progress sped up considerably in the past decade with the arrival of the SpaceX Falcon 9, whose boosters have achieved 276 reflights and 305 landings as of May.8.2024.

Reusable rocket powered vehicle designs fall roughly into the following five categories:

  1. Partially reusable orbital transport:
  2. Fully reusable orbital transport:
  3. Reusable spacecraft:
  4. Fully reusable suborbital:
  5. Fully reusable hypersonic suborbital for long distance point-to-point transport:

Below are reports on several projects and programs that fall into at least one of these categories.

** SpaceX Starship –  Preparations for 4th test flight, Elon Musk design update, construction of new launch tower, etc.

Starship news highlights since the last update:

  • The 4th test flight is expected by end of May and could happen as early as the middle of the month.
  • Elon Musk gave an update to an assembly of workers at Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas. Some items of interest:
    • The 4th test flight will attempt a soft landing of the booster onto the Gulf of Mexico waters.
    • The sea landing will emulate the return of a booster into the grasp of the mounting arms (i.e. the flycatcher) on the launch tower. If this goes well, the fifth test mission may attempt an actual booster catch on the launch tower at Starbase.
    • The priority for the Starship upper stage is to survive reentry and a soft landing on the water.
    • Starship will need to survive several ocean returns before attempting a tower catch.
    • The Starship Version 3 will take 200+ tons to orbit using upgraded Raptor engines, 6 engines instead of 3 in ship stage, and longer stages. (See Starship Performance table below.)
    • Establishing a self-sustainable city on Mars remains the top priority.
    • A lunar base will be a side-benefit of the Mars program.
  • The fluid transfer test on the 3rd test flight went well.
  • The transfer of propellants between two Starships in orbit will be tested in 2025.
  • The uncrewed Starship lunar landing demo mission will also include lifting off from the lunar surface.

More about these items follows.

** Elon Musk update presentation on April 4, 2024 to SpaceX employees: To make life multiplanetary – SpaceX Updates – Apr.6.2024

The goal of SpaceX is to build the technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary. This is the first time in the 4-billion-year history of Earth that it’s possible to realize that goal and protect the light of consciousness.

At Starbase on Thursday, April 4, SpaceX Chief Engineer Elon Musk provided an update on the company’s plans to send humanity to Mars, the best destination to begin making life multiplanetary.

All of SpaceX’s current programs, including Falcon, Dragon, Starlink, and Starship are integral to developing the technologies necessary to make missions to Mars a reality. The update included near-term priorities for Starship that will unlock its ability to be fully and rapidly reusable, the core enabler for transforming humanity’s ability to send large amounts of payload to orbit and beyond. With more flight tests, significant vehicle upgrades, and missions returning astronauts to the surface of the Moon with NASA’s Artemis Program all coming soon, excitement will continue to be guaranteed with Starship.

The talk also includes the mechanics and challenges of traveling to Mars, along with what we’re building today to enable sending around a million people and several million tonnes to the Martian surface in the years to come.

** Some slides and videos of interest from Elon Musk’s presentation:

  • Starship upgrades
A comparison of the performance for three generations of Starship designs. Table shown by Elon Musk in Starbase talk on April 4th. Credit: SpaceX
  • Catching a Super Heavy booster:

  • Bases on the Moon and Mars

A couple of responses to Elon’s talk:

—- Update on lunar projects and orbital refueling

The propellant transfer test on third flight apparently went well according to Amit Kshatriya, the deputy associate administrator for NASA’s Moon to Mars Program:

“He also noted that the inter-tank cryogenic propellant transfer test on the third Starship flight last month was successful by all accounts, although analysis of data from it is ongoing.” – Jeff Foust on Twitter

Kshatriya provide two slides outlining the propellant transfer demonstration mission:

More on Kshatriya’s discussion of Starship refueling:

** Starship lunar landing demonstration mission will include liftoff from surface

** Kshatriya confirmed the fourth flight test should happen in May:

** SpaceX video of third test flight:

On March 14, 2024, Starship successfully lifted off at 8:25 a.m. CT from Starbase in Texas and went on to accomplish several major milestones and firsts.

Starship’s six second stage Raptor engines all started successfully and powered the vehicle to its expected orbit, becoming the first Starship to complete its full-duration ascent burn. Starship went on to experience its first ever entry from space, providing valuable data on heating and vehicle control during hypersonic reentry. Live views of entry were made possible by Starlink terminals operating on Starship.

This rapid iterative development approach has been the basis for all of SpaceX’s major innovative advancements, including Falcon, Dragon, and Starlink. Recursive improvement is essential as we work to build a fully reusable transportation system capable of carrying both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, help humanity return to the Moon, and ultimately travel to Mars and beyond.

** “Ellie in Space” interview with Eric Berger, who is following up on his book Liftoff [commission link] about the early days of SpaceX with a new book titled Reentry [commission link], which focuses on the development of the reusable Falcon 9 and its impact on the space industry.

** The Space Show interviewed guest Christopher Prophet, who has written extensively about SpaceX.

For lots of  background info on Starship, see the SpaceX Starship report, which is published by NewSpace Global and for which I was the primary author. The initial version came out in March 2023 and then we updated it in May 2023 to include coverage of the first flight test.

==================

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for news and analysis of key developments in NewSpace

The latest issue:
Starlink’s Progress, Vulcan, Moon Landing Attempts
Vol. 19, No. 1, February 2, 2024

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==================

** SpaceX Falcon Rockets & Dragon Spacecraft

— Falcon 9 booster achieves 20 flights for the first time.

As of May 2nd, three boosters had reached 20 flights. Flying 20 times was the most recent milestone for F9 booster reuse.   Elon Musk in January said the next goal is to qualify F9 boosters for 40 flights.

An analysis of F9 launch rate: Mass Value Report for March 2024 – by Peter Hague | Planetocracy – Apr.1.2024.

— Merlin engine reuse exceeds 20 flights

The engines on the boosters can be swapped out between flights and used on different boosters. Some engines have now been reused more than the most-flown booster:

** Number of successful F9 booster landings now exceeds 300: SpaceX has now landed more boosters than most other rockets ever launch | Ars Technica – Apr.24.2024.

… SpaceX is now launching at a rate of one mission every 2.7 days this year. Consider that, from the mid-1980s through the 2010s, the record for the total number of launches worldwide in any given year was 129. This year alone, SpaceX is on pace for between 130 and 140 total launches.

But with Tuesday evening’s mission, there was a singular number that stood out: 300. The Falcon family, which includes the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy boosters, recorded its 300th successful first-stage landing.

…

In the fleet’s lifetime, then, SpaceX has landed about 85 percent of the Falcon rockets it has launched. These days, more than 90 percent of all its missions launch on previously flown boosters. So rocket recycling is totally a thing.

** More Falcon 9 news and articles:

** Blue Origin New Glenn – Progress towards first flight in 2024

** Rocket Lab – Recovered Electron booster tank in preparation for reflight

Rocket Lab announced on April 10th that

it is returning a previously flown Electron rocket first stage tank into the Electron production line for the first time in preparation for reflying the stage. The step is a significant milestone in Rocket Lab’s development program to make Electron the world’s first reusable small orbital launch vehicle.

The booster was recovered from mission in January. This is the same booster structure but presumably with different engines and/or other supporting subsystems.

Rocket Lab has successfully recovered multiple Electron first stages from previous missions by returning them to Earth under a parachute after launch, splashing them down in the ocean, then collecting them onto a specially modified boat for transfer back to Rocket Lab’s production complex. All previously recovered boosters have undergone extensive analysis to inform an iterative development process to make Electron reusable, but this is the first time a tank has been moved back onto the standard production line in preparation for reflight.The stage was successfully launched and recovered as part of the ‘Four of a Kind’ mission on 31 January 2024 and has already passed more acceptance tests than any other recovered Electron stage, including:

    • Tank pressurization test – a process that filled the carbon composite tank with inert gas and held it in excess of maximum operating pressure for more than 20x longer than the standard Electron flight duration;
    • Helium leak check – a stringent process that determines there are no leaks in the tank; and
    • Carbon fiber structural testing – including ultrasonic assessment and other non-destructive tests to confirm no delamination of the carbon composite tank fibers.

The tank will

undergo final fit out and rigorous qualification and acceptance testing to the same standard as a brand-new Electron tank to determine the recovered stage’s suitability for reflight.

If successful, this would be the second rocket to reuse a liquid fuel booster tank following SpaceX’s success with reuse of the Falcon 9 first stages.

** Testing begins for first complete Archimedes engine. Nine of Archimedes engines will power the first stage of the reusable Neutron rocket and one in a configuration for vacuum will power the second stage.

** Neutron debut launch slips to mid-2025 from prior target at end of 2024:

** Stoke Space – Engine testing underway

** Relativity Space– Focus on Terran R development with initial launch in 2026

Relativity is making progress on development of the Terran R mid-range launcher with a reusable first stage. The current expectation is for the first launch to happen in 2026. The company recently chose not to compete for a military launch contract since it required launches in 2025: Relativity Space delays NSSL bid, focuses on 2026 Terran R debut | SpaceNews – Apr.10.2024

— Progress on Cape Canaveral launch facility:

— Relativity tests the aerodynamics of the Terran R design: Relatively Speaking: Wind Tunnel Terran R Testing Explained

Join the aerodynamics team on a behind the scenes deep dive into Terran R wind tunnel testing at NASA Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel facility.

Simulating a Terran R flight, the data collected is crucial in determining driving load cases for a reliable and reusable Terran R, informing critical design points and cases to ensure stage 1 landing back on Earth.

00:00 – 00:44 Why invest in a model and wind tunnel testing?
00:45 – 1:04 What are the key advantages of wind tunnel testing?
1:05 – 1:43 What is a wind tunnel?
1:44 – 2:10 NASA Langley UPWT facilities overview
2:11 – 2:55 Testing objectives
2:55 – 3:31 Units of measurement: Mach, Reynolds, and Schlieren
3:32 – 4:13 End goal: Stage 1 safe re-entry

— Aeon R testing ASMR – Relativity Space

The sounds of @NASA Stennis Space Center—from E1 thrust chamber assembly testing to E2 gas generator and R Stand engine testing—enjoy. 1,000+ tests in the books including over 50 Aeon R engine tests and counting since the R Stand was activated in October 2023.

** Orbex – Reusable stage employs patented drag brake design

Orbex is a UK company based in Scotland that is developing a two-stage rocket vehicle they call Orbex Prime. The Prime’s first stage is reusable. The 19 meter tall rocket will put payloads up to 180 kg into a sun-synchronous orbits when launched from the company’s spaceport, currently under construction in Sutherland, Scotland. The company was founded in 2015 and has raised backing from private and government sources including ESA and UK.

The company has developed its own engines. The first stage uses six engines and the upper stage one. The engines burn a bio-propane fuel, which the company says is “that cuts carbon emissions by 90% compared to old-fashioned hydrocarbons“.

A prototype Prime was rolled out to a test pad in 2022: Orbex Reveals First Full-scale Microlauncher Rocket | Orbex – May.11.2022

Prototype Prime rocket on test pad in May 2022. Credits: Orbex

The first stage returns for a soft landing. The stage’s descent is slowed via drag brakes deployed via a patented “petal fold” technique: Patent secured for ‘petal fold’ reusable rocket technology | Orbex – Mar.27.2024

Orbex’s Prime rocket will consist of two stages, and the REFLIGHT system repurposes the interstage structure located between the stages. After Stage 1 detaches from Stage 2, the interstage on top of Stage 1 reconfigures into four ‘petals’ which fold out and create drag forces that passively reorients and slows the spent rocket stage’s descent to Earth.

The company claims this technology

enables recovery of the launch vehicle by repurposing existing structural features, while adding very little additional weight to the vehicle. It thereby enables reusability with very limited overall performance penalty and no additional rocket propulsion emissions in the upper atmosphere during re-entry. This should be compared to other reusable launch systems using powered descent (rocket engine firings) to slow down the vehicle during re-entry and landing.

A prototype of the Petal Fold drag brake system for Orbex Prime rocket: Credits: Orbex

The stage will be recovered at sea:

In combination with a lightweight parachute the drag created by the petals will enable Stage 1’s to perform a low velocity landing at sea.

Orbex will then recover the floating Stage 1 and return it to its factory in Forres for refurbishment and/or recycling. During descent and recovery, there will be no debris left in orbit, on land or in sea, creating a ‘circular rocket economy’.

The company was also awarded a patent for “coaxial tank structure” design that situates the fuel tank within the liquid oxygen tank: Coaxial Tank Patent Orbex | Orbex – Feb.2024

Very small rockets which copy the traditional `stacked` tank architecture of larger rockets are less efficient and cost-effective than their larger counterparts, because they carry much less fuel per unit of ‘dry mass’. This central inefficiency was the major engineering challenge that the Orbex team set out to solve with the Orbex Prime architecture.

The Orbex team created a unique answer to that challenge, by nesting the fuel tank within an outer tank of liquid oxygen. This tank arrangement has unique synergies with Orbex’s choice of bio-propane as a rocket fuel because bio-propane does not freeze solid when chilled to the same temperature as liquid oxygen. The coaxial tank structure thus removes surplus components and sub-systems such as insulation, extra bulkheads, external pipework, heavy tank walls and thermal conditioning equipment.

The first launch of Prime should be within the next year or so.

See also:

** Radian Aerospace – Single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) spaceplane with sled launch

A rocket-driven sled would hurl the Radian One winged vehicle on a trajectory to orbit after a quick trip down a 2-mile long track. (Arguably, the sled is a booster stage.)

Five methane/liquid oxygen engines power the vehicle in the latest design. The sled would used three of the same engines. Radian One is designed to carry as many as 5 passengers to LEO and a total payload of up to 2270 kg . The vehicle  can return from orbit with up to 4540 kg and land at any airport with a long enough runway. The goal is a 48-hour turnaround for reflight.

Radian One would achieve a light weight structure via carbon-composites:

The company aims to fly by 2030 and provide transportation services to the commercial space stations that are expecting to be operating by then. The company raised $27M in 2022 and is currently pursuing a new funding round.

Here is an interview with Livingston Holder, Radian’s CTO and a cofounder (posted Apr.30.2024):

The first single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) space plane? That’s exactly what we’re discussing on this week’s Pathfinder podcast. We interview Livingston Holder, cofounder and CTO of Radian Aerospace, which is developing a fully reusable space plane designed for horizontal launch and landing.

SSTO? Essentially, SSTO vehicles are designed to reach orbit using a single stage without discarding any hardware.

We explore Livingston’s background as a former USAF astronaut as well as the Seattle-based startup’s roadmap to build the world’s first SSTO space transport vehicle. In addition, we cover:

– Radian’s technology advantage
– Cultural and operational shifts in space missions
– Market positioning of SSTO
– Future applications and impact on space ops

And much more…

More on Radian:

=== Reusable spacecraft

** Boeing Starliner crew vehicle is scheduled to launch no earlier than May 10th on a ULA Vulcan rocket for its first crewed mission to the ISS. The original target launch date was May 6th but it was aborted due to a valve problem on the Vulcan upper stage.

This is a demonstration mission and so has two astronauts (Barry “Butch” Wilmore and Suni Williams) on board. The operational missions will carry four. After leaving the ISS, the reusable spacecraft will return for a touch down on dry land via parachutes and airbag cushioning.

— Watch Boeing Starliner fly to space in ascent profile animation – VideoFromSpace

This animation shows Boeing Starliner launching to space on board a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket. Starliner is one of two spacecraft built to carry astronauts to and from the International Space Station.

— NASA’s Boeing Crew Flight Test Readiness Review (April 25, 2024) – NASA Video

NASA and Boeing leadership will discuss the flight test readiness review for the first crewed launch of the company’s Starliner spacecraft to the International Space Station. NASA’s Boeing Crew Flight Test will carry NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to and from the microgravity laboratory on an end-to-end test of the Starliner system.

Participants:
• Jim Free, NASA associate administrator
• Ken Bowersox, associate administrator, NASA’s Space Operations Mission Directorate
• Steve Stich, manager, NASA’s Commercial Crew Program
• Dana Weigel, manager, NASA’s International Space Station Program
• Mark Nappi, vice president and program manager, Boeing Commercial Crew Program

** ULA considering multi-mission scenarios for Vulcan upper stage:

ULA is looking at using the Centaur V upper stage on its new Vulcan rocket for long duration in-orbit missions: ULA has an ambitious plan to ‘reuse’ Vulcan rocket: keep it in space | Defense One – Apr.18.2024.

Faced with competitors building their own reusable heavy-lift rocket, United Launch Alliance is devising plans to keep the upper stage of its Vulcan Centaur rockets in space, where they might tug satellites or counter Chinese threats.

These upper stages could be loaded with more propellant than needed for their initial launch duties, allowing them to stay in orbit and handle other tasks for weeks or months, ULA CEO Tory Bruno told Defense One on the sidelines of the Space Symposium conference.

“I can go off and serve a spacecraft and move spacecraft and get in between Chinese anti-satellite weapons on orbit and things we’re trying to protect. I can do all kinds of missions that are with a reusable upper stage,” Bruno said.

A project at ULA designed a version of the Centaur that could remain in space for long periods and provide space tug, satellite refueling, and other in-orbit service. Called the  Advanced Cryogenic Evolved Stage (ACES), the Integrated Vehicle Fluids system would use the liquid Hydrogen/Oxygen propellants not only for propulsion but also to fuel internal combustion engines that would drive electric generators in place of batteries. The boil off gases from the two cryogenic-propellants would also be used for attitude thrusters and to self-pressurize the propellant tanks (see autogenous pressurization), eliminating the need for hydrazine fuel and helium, resp.

Unfortunately, neither ULA’s owners (Boeing and Lockheed-Martin) nor the military decided to fund the project beyond the study phase. The Centaur V does have some of the features of ACES such as a larger diameter but not the IVF systems.

More about Vulcan reusability concepts: ULA chief explains reusability and innovation of new rocket | Spaceflight Now – Apr.14.2015.

** Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser crew vehicle debut flight slips till at least September:

According to the above article, the ULA Vulcan rocket

which had its maiden flight in January, likely won’t fly again until the fall, in part due to delays with the payload: Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser vehicle.

…

ULA needs this second certification flight before it can start flying missions for the Space Force. Company officials previously said they plan to fly four national security missions this year, but “with Sierra Space on the Cert-2 mission now moving to no earlier than September, we have three Vulcan NSSL missions planned for the remainder of the year but will fly when our customers are ready,” the company said in a statement.

** Impulse Space Propulsion: To LEO, GEO, and Beyond: A Conversation With Tom Mueller – Via Satellite Magazine on Youtube

We have a special On Orbit episode from SATELLITE 2024 this week, a fireside chat with Impulse Space CEO Tom Mueller. Mueller is considered one of the world’s leading spacecraft propulsion experts. As one of SpaceX‘s founding members, he led the development of propulsion systems for the Falcon 1, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship Launch Vehicles, as well as the Dragon line of spacecraft. His work was crucial in the development of reusable rocket technology.

Mueller spoke with Via Satellite editor-in-chief Mark Holmes during SATELLITE about his new company Impulse Space, an in-space transportation company working to deliver payloads to LEO, GEO, the Moon, Mars and beyond. Mueller describes his vision for Impulse Space to provide the transportation for the space economy of the future with Mira and the recently announced Helios kick stage.

** Portal Space Systems developing in-space vehicles powered by solar thermal propulsion:

Portal Space emerged from stealth mode on April 30th and revealed the design of their Supernova satellite bus, which

… is engineered from the ground up for maneuverability and features a novel solar-thermal propulsion system. With a payload-agnostic design and 500 kg mass, Supernova boasts a remarkable 6 km/s delta-v, setting a new standard for in-space mobility with 50 times the range of existing products on the market. 

That means that the system can perform currently impossible mission needs, like moving from Low Earth Orbit to geostationary orbit in hours or even the moon in just days.

“The space industry hasn’t fundamentally improved satellite bus technology in decades. Our nation is developing 6th-generation fighter aircraft technology but still uses 1st-generation satellite buses. Portal’s Supernova is designed around the customer need for unparalleled mobility and extended mission life,” said Jeff Thornburg, CEO of Portal Space Systems and former architect of SpaceX’s Raptor Engine. “Our novel solar-thermal propulsion system and bus design, combined with our compatibility to support any customer payload, sets us apart. We provide an over 50x improvement in current spacecraft mobility. For our customers, that means the ability to have spacecraft on orbit that are able to respond in real-time to events in any orbital regime.”

More about Portal Space:

=== Europe

** PLD Space – Additional funding raised

New funding for PLD lifts total investment to 120 Million euros. The latest funding will go primarily to expanding facilities needed to support development and operations of the Miura 5 small launcher. The vehicle’s first stage booster will be recovered via parachute return into the ocean.

=== China

** LandSpace – Vertical takeoff and landing test flight to 10 km planned for June

** 130-ton reusable engine by CNSA completes 15 tests, paving way for reusable carrier rockets – CNSA Watcher – Archives

Exciting breakthrough! The 130-ton reusable liquid oxygen kerosene engine independently developed by the Sixth Academy of Aerospace Technology Group has completed 15 repeated tests, laying the foundation for the maiden flight of reusable carrier rockets. (Source: Sixth Academy of Aerospace Technology Group)

Source: https://m.weibo.cn/status/O9EhOEuuR

See also China Tackles Reusable Rocket Engine Challenges | Leonard David – Apr.14.2024.

** China to use adjustable ‘net’ to catch reusable rockets – See an animation – VideoFromSpace

[China’s primary government space organization, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC),] is developing reusable rockets to launch in 2025 and 2026. See the ‘net’ technology they will use to catch the booster when it returns to Earth in this animation.

More at China plans to catch its reusable rockets with constricting wires | Space.com – Apr.3.2024.

** Other Chinese reusable rocket developers:

See also the table at SpaceNews.

=== Reusable suborbital rocket vehicles for tourism, science & technology

** Blue Origin New Shepard – First crew mission since resumption of flights after 2022 booster failure

—- The date of the next New Shepard flight has not yet been revealed but the crew was announced in early April: New Shepard’s 25th Mission Includes America’s First Black Astronaut Candidate | Blue Origin – Apr.3.2024.

The six spaceflight participants include Ed Dwight, who was a candidate for the NASA astronaut corp in the early 1960s. If selected he would have been the first African American astronaut.

—- This would be the second flight since the booster failure on Sept. 12.2022 and the first with passengers on board.

—- The private organization SERA (Space Exploration & Research Agency) has reserved six seats on a future New Shepard flight:SERA Partners with Blue Origin for Historic Space Mission | SERA – Apr.24.2024

SERA aims to make spaceflight available to as wide an array of people around the world as possible.

“Despite the trillions spent by governments, there have usually been only a handful of people in space at any given time over the last three decades,” says Sam Hutchison, Co-Founder of SERA. “The unimaginably rich material and energy resources of the solar system remain entirely untapped. With launch costs coming down this is all about to change, and SERA wants to make sure that everyone on Earth has the chance to participate in the growth of the offworld economy.”

** Blue Origin’s Launch Site One – Blue Origin Youtube

Take a tour of Launch Site One, nestled in the Guadalupe Mountains in West Texas, where astronauts fly to space and back onboard New Shepard.

** Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo –

—- Final flight of 1st-gen VSS Unity vehicle

VG announced that the flight window for the ‘Galactic 07’ commercial mission will open Saturday, June 8, 2024. This will be the Company’s second spaceflight for 2024. Commercial flights began with Galactic 01 on May 25, 2023.  VSS Unity has flown 12 flights to suborbital space in total since December 2018. Galactic 07 will be the final flight for VSS Unity and the first-gen vehicle design.

—- Delta class vehicle development

Virgin Galactic’s top priority goal is operational status for the Delta class version of the SpaceShipTwo vehicles by 2026. The Delta spaceships will be capable of eight space missions per month with up to six passengers per flight. Such can make VG’s suborbital flight business profitable. Flight tests should begin in 2025. The company says it has “cash equivalents and marketable securities of $982 million as of December 31, 2023“, which they believe is sufficient to sustain VG through the inauguration of Delta class operations.

** Opening of new ground test facility: Virgin Galactic Begins Operations at Delta Spaceship Ground Testing Facility | Virgin Galactic – May.6.2024

[Virgin Galactic] announced that it has opened a new system integration facility in Southern California for the Company’s Delta Class spaceships. This ground-based test facility, which houses a testing platform known as an “Iron Bird,” has begun tests of initial subsystems and will add components over the course of the year to increase its scope and effectiveness.

Using an Iron Bird test rig is common practice in aerospace development programs and allows Virgin Galactic to test and verify the operation of dozens of Delta subsystems – including avionics, feather actuation, pneumatics and hydraulics. This strategic investment is an important building block to ensure efficient production and safe operations of the Delta Class spaceships, allowing the team to validate the functionality of components early in the development process.

The Iron Bird is just one ground testing method used in the development of the Delta spaceship. A static test article will stress major structural components to verify structural integrity data and determine the design and ultimate limit loads of the structure, which will both optimize the flight test program and support our overall turn time objectives.

 Final assembly of the Delta ships will take place at Virgin Galactic’s new Delta facility in Phoenix, Arizona.

VG is posting occasional reports on Youtube about the development of the Delta vehicles. Here are three posted so far:

—- #DeltaDiaries: Hybrid Rocket System – Virgin Galactic

The Delta class spaceships will be powered by our record-breaking hybrid rocket system. In this installment of #DeltaDiaries, Byron Henning, Vice President, Rocket Systems gives insights into the next generation system for Delta.

— #DeltaDiaries: What is a Digital Thread? – Virgin Galactic

What is a digital thread? A digital thread allows us to track the full lifecycle and performance of every vehicle part, from design to manufacturing, to quality control, to spaceflight operations. It tracks and displays everything we need to know about our Delta spaceships. Gabe Williams, Sr. Chief Engineer, Spaceships tells us more on #DeltaDiaries.

— Delta Diaries: Simulator Spotlight – Virgin Galactic

The simulator, essential for pilot training, also plays a pivotal role in designing our new Delta fleet. It’s used by various engineering disciplines to ensure systems are spaceflight-ready. Join us in #DeltaDiaries as Virgin Galactic Pilot Jameel Janjua discusses its importance in developing our Delta Class spaceships.

** The disappointing pace of commercial suborbital human spaceflight since the X PRIZE winning flights of SpaceShipOne in 2004: Blue Origin Gears Up for Next New Shepard Flight as Anniversaries Loom | Doug Messier – Mar.30.2024.

Doug makes many good points but I always feel compelled to respond to such critiques of the field. In the early 2000s, I and many others in the New Space community were enthusiastic promoters of suborbital human spaceflight. The expectation was that reusable suborbital vehicles for space tourism would provide the key first step to eventual development of commercial reusable orbital space transportation. Suborbital transports would provide key technical knowledge about how to build and operate rocket powered vehicles with the fast turnaround times and robustness of aircraft. Perhaps most importantly, the profits from this market would fund the development of the more challenging orbital transports.

However, things did not work out this way. SpaceX proved that with enough capital and will power, a company could go directly to orbit without an intermediate suborbital phase. (Will note that even SpaceX practiced landing with the low altitude Grasshopper vehicle.)

There were several companies that took on the challenge of suborbital spaceflight. I think an appropriate metaphor for the creation of a new technological market like this one is that of a group of people attempting to run across a wide field filled with booby traps, land mines, poisonous snakes, Komodo dragons, and other nasties. Most will fall victim to a fatal hazard but usually a couple make it across to the treasures awaiting them. However, there’s a finite chance that they all are victimized. The field of suborbital spaceflight certainly left all the entrants inactive or damaged to some degree:

  • Blue Origin came closest to expectations in the way the company learned a great deal from New Shepard about reusable rocket engines and flying, landing and reusing a rocket vehicle. Blue has always been secretive but it’s known that they lost at least a couple of test vehicles. It’s clear also that early on they made suborbital a sideline activity of lower priority to the New Glenn orbital program.
  • Virgin Galactic made bad design choices with the selection of hybrid propulsion, which they struggled to scale up from the SpaceShipOne system. The air-launched winged vehicle configuration did not lead to a viable orbital system. In retrospect, it was certainly unusual that such a project remained funded for nearly 20 years between its founding and the first revenue from commercial flights. The two accidents that Doug mentions were certainly disasters but difficult to argue they were due to a rush to launch.
  • XCOR and several other startups came up with designs that were probably technically viable but they never raised sufficient capital or made enough money from initiatives like rocket racing to sustain development of their vehicles.

All this being said, I remain convinced that suborbital flight services for adventurous private individuals, i.e. space tourism, and for science experiments and technology tests will gradually become a sustainable industry. Space tourist suborbital flights remain infrequent and very expensive but  prices are set by supply and demand. The fact that Blue and VG easily find customers for their infrequent flights even at extravagant ticket prices indicates that demand is there. If the flight rate eventually rises, then ticket prices will fall accordingly. Orbital flight tickets will also fall in price but suborbital looks always to be substantially cheaper. And some people will prefer a brief adventure to a multi-day stay in orbit.

Finally, I’ll note that luck plays a big role in successfully traversing a dangerous field even for those extremely agile in avoiding pitfalls. For example, Elon Musk often talks about the situation at the end of 2008 when he was out of money and sleeping on the couches of friends. With a deep recession underway, finding new private investors was unlikely. Fortunately, the success of the fourth Falcon 1 launch, which came after three failures, gave SpaceX just enough credibility to win the NASA contract for commercial ISS cargo services. As recounted in Eric Berger’s book, Liftoff [commission link], that fourth flight very nearly didn’t happen. If it had not, then SpaceX probably would not have survived 2008 and Elon would be portrayed as just another amateur space mogul like Andrew Beal and Walter Kistler who promised affordable space transportation but fell far short. Rockets with reusable boosters that land vertically 20 times or more (see above) would remain dismissed by most aerospace pundits as fantasies. Fortunately, SpaceX did survive and we can hope they and others successfully traverse the hazardous passage to fully reusable, low-cost space transports.

** Astrobotic contracted by USAF to use the company’s suborbital rockets to test rocket engine technologies: Astrobotic and U.S Air Force Announce Rocket Research and Development Collaboration | Astrobotic – Apr.3.2024

Astrobotic and the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) Rocket Propulsion Division at Edwards Air Force Base have entered into a Cooperative Research & Development Agreement (CRADA) to enhance both organizations’ capabilities and collaborate in the development of advanced liquid rocket engine, rotating detonation rocket engine (RDRE) technologies, and on-base rocket flight testing capabilities using Astrobotic reusable rockets.

“This agreement between Astrobotic and AFRL will enable joint work on new rocket engine technologies, including their applications to in-space propulsion, along with their early flight demonstrations. For Astrobotic, working with AFRL, this rocket-engine flight testbed will demonstrate future capabilities in rocket propulsion such as RDREs and novel additively manufactured materials for high-temperature, high-pressure, chemically-reacting gas environments,” said Dr. Javier Urzay, Chief of the Combustion Devices Branch at AFRL, “These technologies are still at a relatively early development stage but have potential game-changing impacts for liquid and solid rocket propulsion systems relevant for Air and Space Force’s missions.”

The collaboration will help Astrobotic design, develop, test, and demonstrate emerging commercial capabilities with critical applications to air and space military operations, including tactically responsive space access, hypersonic propulsion and testing, and tactical point-to-point rocket transport of cargo. Under the CRADA, AFRL and Astrobotic plan to use Astrobotic’s Xodiac and Xogdor-class vertical-takeoff, vertical-landing (VTVL) rockets to flight test new liquid rocket engines, integrated systems, payloads, and concepts of operation to mature these types of capabilities.

A rendering of the Xogdor rocket in development at Astrobotic. Credits: Astrobotic

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