{"id":10170,"date":"2015-03-18T12:18:12","date_gmt":"2015-03-18T16:18:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/?p=10170"},"modified":"2015-03-19T10:19:12","modified_gmt":"2015-03-19T14:19:12","slug":"mars-one-finalists-refute-accusations-from-one-of-their-own-making-mars-settlement-real","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/?p=10170","title":{"rendered":"Mars One finalists refute accusations from one of their own + Making Mars settlement real"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mars-one.com\" target=\"_blank\">Mars One<\/a> project is getting hammered on the web by these two articles that include accusations against the project made by one of the entrants who made the cut to the Mars100 group:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/matter\/mars-one-insider-quits-dangerously-flawed-project-2dfef95217d3\" target=\"_d\">Mars One Finalist Explains Exactly How It\u2019s Ripping Off Supporters \u2014 Matter\/Medium<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/matter\/all-dressed-up-for-mars-and-nowhere-to-go-7e76df527ca0\" target=\"_d\">All Dressed Up For Mars and Nowhere to Go \u2014 Matter\/Medium<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>However, other Mars1000 finalists respond with a rebuttal to each of the accusations:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@oscarmathewscorrea\/current-mars100-finalists-refute-elmo-keep-s-mars-one-conspiracy-theory-fc303ebb4bea\" target=\"_d\">Current Mars100 Finalists refute Elmo Keep\u2019s Mars One \u201cconspiracy theory.\u201d \u2014 Medium<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>As I&#8217;ve indicated\u00a0before, Mars One is essentially an aspirational project. It aspires to create\u00a0a Mars settlement but it is dependent on others\u00a0to make a settlement\u00a0technically feasible at a price that a private effort could conceivably afford.\u00a0There is nothing in the Mars One plan about developing its own rockets, spacecraft, settlement hardware, etc. Mars One is\u00a0all about creating\u00a0a business model that can\u00a0raise sufficient funds to pay the company (or companies) that supply\u00a0the rockets, spacecraft, etc. to take a group of private individuals to the Red Planet.<\/p>\n<p>Currently, it is only <a href=\"http:\/\/www.SpaceX.com\" target=\"_blank\">SpaceX<\/a>\u00a0that looks like it could supply affordable transportation to the Red Planet in the next decade or two.\u00a0Elon Musk has often said, as <a href=\"http:\/\/shitelonsays.com\/transcript\/elon-musk-at-mits-aeroastro-centennial-part-1-of-6-2014-10-24\" target=\"_blank\">in the\u00a0interview<\/a> at MIT last fall shown in the video below,\u00a0that Mars settlement is the primary goal of the company:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><em> The long term ambition of SpaceX is to develop the technologies necessary to establish a self-sustaining city on Mars, or civilization on Mars,<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"1600\" height=\"900\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/PULkWGHeIQQ?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Full reusability of rockets and spacecraft is what makes it\u00a0not crazy\u00a0to\u00a0talk about reductions in space transportation costs by <a href=\"http:\/\/shitelonsays.com\/transcript\/elon-musk-at-mits-aeroastro-centennial-part-2-of-6-2014-10-24\" target=\"_blank\">factors of 10 to 100<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><em>Well, it is a chicken and egg situation, the reason why there&#8217;s low demand for spaceflight is because it&#8217;s ridiculously expensive, and so at some point someone has to say, okay, we&#8217;re going to make something that&#8217;s much more affordable and then see what applications develop. That&#8217;s what has to happen. <\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><em>The situation in rocketry is like if an aircraft &#8211; imagine if aircraft were single use, then how many people would fly? The flight rate would be really low. If you buy a 757 it&#8217;s like $250M, or maybe $300M, and you need two of them for a round-trip. No-one is paying half-a-billion dollars to fly from Boston to London, and if that were the case there&#8217;d be like a very small number of flights for scientific and military purposes and people would say, wow, the market for aircraft is so tiny, people really love going by boat &#8211; it&#8217;s nonsense. <\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><em>If we have rockets that are reusable, we could &#8211; fully-reusable and can get to a decent flight rate, the potential is there to get a two order of magnitude reduction in the cost of space transport, which is, I think, vital for establishment of a self-sustaining civilization on another planet or even on the Moon or some sort of L5 colony or whatever, but you really need to get the cost down &#8211; we need a two order of magnitude improvement, at least, in the cost of transport. In fact, relative to the estimates of what it costs to do a manned Mars mission, I think like some of the lower estimates are at the $100B to $200B level, for a four person mission, we need more like a 10,000 fold reduction. I mean, so people can afford to go.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>(As long as NASA ignores reusability and focuses only on a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/exploration\/systems\/sls\/\" target=\"_blank\">big and stupendously expensive rocket<\/a>, the agency will never afford to go\u00a0to Mars even for\u00a0a simple flag and footprints mission with three or four astronauts.)<\/p>\n<p>Elon\u00a0is aiming for a price of\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/shitelonsays.com\/transcript\/spacex-seattle-2015-2015-01-15\" target=\"_blank\">$500k<\/a>\u00a0for a\u00a0person to move to Mars. He sees that as an amount that many people could raise by cashing out all their assets.<\/p>\n<p>He apparently has had no direct contact with Mars One and has stated that the organization&#8217;s\u00a0emphasis on one-way trips is misguided. It won&#8217;t be affordable to go to Mars unless the <a href=\"http:\/\/shitelonsays.com\/transcript\/elon-musk-at-mits-aeroastro-centennial-part-2-of-6-2014-10-24\" target=\"_blank\">transports are two-way<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><em> I think there&#8217;s plenty of people who will sign up for a one-way trip to Mars. It&#8217;d certainly be enough, but I think the question is, is it a one-way mission and then you die, or is it a one-way mission and you get resupplied, that&#8217;s a big difference. I think it ends up being a moot point because you want to bring the spaceship back. These spaceships are expensive, okay, they&#8217;re hard to build. You can&#8217;t just leave them there. So whether or not people want to come back or not, is kind of &#8211; like, they can just jump on if they want, but we need the spaceship back. I mean, it&#8217;d be kind of weird if there&#8217;s this huge collection of spaceships on Mars over time. It&#8217;d be like, maybe we should send them back &#8211; no, of course we should send them back. Particularly if we want to have a colony of some kind that&#8217;s of significant size.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The Mars One graphics typically show <a href=\"http:\/\/www.spacex.com\/dragon\" target=\"_blank\">Dragon spacecraft<\/a> converted into habitats on the ground. However, Elon thinks that going to Mars in Dragons <a href=\"http:\/\/shitelonsays.com\/transcript\/elon-musk-at-mits-aeroastro-centennial-part-5-of-6-2014-10-24\" target=\"_blank\">makes little\u00a0sense<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><em>Well, the illustrations that I&#8217;ve seen basically has them using a bunch of SpaceX rockets and Dragon spacecraft. I&#8217;m like, okay, if they want to buy a bunch of Dragons and Falcon 9 rockets, that&#8217;s cool. We&#8217;ll certainly sell them. I mean, I don&#8217;t think they&#8217;ve got anywhere near the funding to buy even one, so I think therefore it&#8217;s unrealistic, and I think trying to go to Mars in Dragon is less than ideal. It&#8217;s at least &#8211; well, if you go real fast it&#8217;s maybe a three month journey and normally it would be more like a 6 to 8 month journey. That&#8217;s a long time to spend in something with the interior volume of an SUV. I&#8217;d recommend waiting for the next generation of technology.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Elon has said that later this year he will describe in more detail the &#8220;next generation of technology&#8221; that he believes will enable\u00a0his plan for Mars settlement. \u00a0If SpaceX makes steady progress over the next few years in implementing that technology, especially reusable rockets, then proposals for Mars settlement will gain increasing credibility and many\u00a0organizations\u00a0will emerge\u00a0to pursue that goal. Mars One may be a leader in that movement or it may have become a footnote; an early group that failed to get off the ground financially but proved\u00a0that there are plenty of people eager and willing to move to Mars.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Update<\/strong>: Some comments from Gwynne Shotwell at SpaceX about Mars travel:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/motherboard.vice.com\/read\/spacex-no-one-laughs-anymore-when-we-talk-about-colonizing-mars?utm_source\" target=\"_d\">SpaceX: No One Laughs Anymore When We Talk About Colonizing Mars &#8211;\u00a0Motherboard<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><em>\u201cWe\u2019re not shy about talking about Mars, which would be an extraordinary step for humans, to actually have a settlement there,\u201d SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said Tuesday at the Satellite conference in Washington, DC. \u201cThe whole company is geared up on that, everybody\u2019s eye is on the Red Planet.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><em>&#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><em>&#8220;We\u2019re not interested in one way trips,&#8221; she said.\u00a0&#8220;In order to take people there and come back, you can\u2019t toss the rocket when you get there and then wait 30 years until you can build another one on Mars.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><em>\u201c<strong>There is a surprising number of people that want to leave Earth, we believe there is a commercial application for any Mars mission<\/strong>,\u201d she added.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>My emphasis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Mars One project is getting hammered on the web by these two articles that include accusations against the project made by one of the entrants who made the cut to the Mars100 group: Mars One Finalist Explains Exactly How It\u2019s Ripping Off Supporters \u2014 Matter\/Medium All Dressed Up For Mars and Nowhere to Go &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/?p=10170\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Mars One finalists refute accusations from one of their own + Making Mars settlement real<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3,35,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10170","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-activism","category-diy-space","category-space-settlement"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p34aWK-2E2","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":9447,"url":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/?p=9447","url_meta":{"origin":10170,"position":0},"title":"Talking about settling\u00a0Mars and the volunteers wanting to go","author":"TopSpacer","date":"December 12, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"On this episode of\u00a0Tom Ashbrook's radio program, he and his guests discuss the possibility of Mars settlement and the willingness of many people to sign up to go to the Red Planet:\u00a0Life On Mars, Eventually -\u00a0On Point with Tom Ashbrook. His guests include: Tariq Malik, managing editor of SPACE.com. (@tariqjmalik)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Mars&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Mars","link":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/?cat=78"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"http:\/\/www.assoc-amazon.com\/e\/ir?t=hobbyspace&l=ur2&o=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":6994,"url":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/?p=6994","url_meta":{"origin":10170,"position":1},"title":"Reality TV shows proposed for Mars One and Mars Society projects","author":"TopSpacer","date":"March 19, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"The plan by the\u00a0Mars-One\u00a0project has always held media, especially reality TV shows, as the key to funding their effort to put a human settlement on the Red Planet. It appears that one television production company,\u00a0Lions Gate\u00a0is the first to give it a try:\u00a0Mission To Colonize Mars To Become Reality TV\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Living in Space&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Living in Space","link":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/?cat=17"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8648,"url":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/?p=8648","url_meta":{"origin":10170,"position":2},"title":"MakerBot Mars Base Challenge &#8211; winners selected","author":"TopSpacer","date":"August 22, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"NASA JPL and\u00a0Thingiverse\u00a0sponsored the\u00a0MakerBot Mars Base Challenge\u00a0in which contestants were to design a utilitarian Mars base that can withstand the elements and maybe even make you feel at home, despite being 140 million miles away from Earth, on average. Three winners have been selected :\u00a0Welcome To Mars. 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The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Contests and Games&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Contests and Games","link":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/?cat=16"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9351,"url":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/?p=9351","url_meta":{"origin":10170,"position":4},"title":"Mars One selects ten finalists for university experiment on Mars mission","author":"TopSpacer","date":"December 2, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Here's an announcement from Mars One: Mars One announces ten potential university payloads to fly to Mars in 2018 Amersfoort, 1st December 2014 - Mars One is proud to present the ten Mars One University Competition finalists eligible to fly to Mars. One of these ten payloads will receive the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;DIY space&quot;","block_context":{"text":"DIY space","link":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/?cat=35"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11473,"url":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/?p=11473","url_meta":{"origin":10170,"position":5},"title":"&#8216;Mars Ice House&#8217; wins the NASA 3D-Printed Habitat Challenge contest","author":"TopSpacer","date":"September 27, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"NASA sponsored the\u00a0NASA 3D-Printed Habitat Challenge\u00a0in which entrant\u00a0teams develop 3D printing systems and techniques for building habitats on Mars. Thirty finalists were chosen in August. See descriptions of each team's concept at\u00a0Design Competition Finalists. At the\u00a0Maker Faire\u00a0underway this weekend in New York the teams displayed their designs and the winners\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Contests and Games&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Contests and Games","link":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/?cat=16"},"img":{"alt_text":"Mars-Ice-House_Dusk+01_lr[1]","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Mars-Ice-House_Dusk-01_lr1.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10170","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10170"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10170\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10187,"href":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10170\/revisions\/10187"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10170"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10170"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hobbyspace.com\/Blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10170"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}