After messing around with MySQL and other misc. stuff on and off for the pass week or so, it appears I've finally gotten the blog at the original address www.hobbyspace.com/nucleus/index.php up to normal speed. So I'm redirecting RLVNews.com and SpaceTransportNews.com back to that address. If you are using one of those two URLs to come to this blog, you don't have to change anything.

I'll keep the "temporary" site www.hobbyspace.com/nucleus324 /index.php active indefinitely since there are external links to its postings. However, I will turn off comments and insert forwarding addresses back to the standard site, where I've been mirroring all of my posts. (I will try to copy all the comments over from the temp site a well.)

I don't take this sort of poll too seriously since the general public is generally not well informed about real (vs. sci-fi) spaceflight: Four in 10 Would Book a Flight to Moon: Most Americans Think Ordinary People Will Travel in Outer Space in the Years Ahead - ABC News - Feb.8.08. When there are commercial human spaceflight systems like SpaceShipTwo in routine operation, people will be able to see and grasp what spaceflight is all about. Polling on public interest in going on such flights will then make sense.

On the other hand, the positive view towards spaceflight in general as seen in such polls is encouraging. After all, a commercial spaceflight industry can thrive even with a participation of only 0.1% of the US population (i.e. ~300k people).
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The Red Bull Air Racing program seems to be going along quite well: Red Bull Air Races Coming To Midwest: Detroit, San Diego Will Host Event In 2008 - Aero-News Network - Feb.8.08. This should obviously be encouraging for the Rocket Racing League, which, I'm sure, is looking for a major title sponsor like Red Bull.

Jon Goff follows up on his comments in the New Scientist article about a crew capable version of the Atlas V: LM/Bigelow Atlas V Deal - Selenian Boondocks.

I agree that the Atlas V may not dramatically lower launch costs but the Bigelow arrangement shows that with a high flight rate even this vehicle can make good progress in that direction. Ticket prices for a Bigelow habitat stay will start off at $15M but should come down, especially when a crew capable Falcon 9/Dragon becomes available. The existence of a robust launch rate would also help other companies attract investment for development of new vehicles, particularly refuel-and-fly RLVs. These vehicles will lower costs even more and this in turn will help drive up the launch rate further. Etc, etc.

The important thing is to get this positive feedback loop going and Bigelow's willingness to risk his own money is key.

A lunar exploration program that drove launch rates even higher would also contribute greatly to this process but unfortunately NASA's current plan does nothing of the sort.

[Update: Rand Simberg comments on all this: More Fur On The Dinosaurs - Transterrestrial Musings]
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Instead, Mike Griffin suggests Lockheed Martin is behind all the anti-Ares talk: Ares complaints: blame Lockheed? - Space Politics.

I would say good for LM if it is true. Building two new expendables while there are two underused EELVs is absurd and the more this news gets out, the better. However, I doubt that LM is leading any anti-Ares conspiracy. LM will be getting billions for the Orion capsule and undercutting Ares will also threaten that program.

The fundamental problem is Griffin's insistence on building new launchers to fit his exploration architecture rather than fitting an architecture to existing launchers (and to soon-to-be-existing ones like Falcon 9). Yes, a robust lunar program might require development of some new technology slightly beyond what's currently on the shelf such as fuel depots and in-space refueling but that is what we should expect an R&D agency to do. The next time NASA astronauts go to the Moon, they should get there via a program that actually advances the state of the art of spaceflight rather than via a retro-architecture that "proves" to everyone yet again how impractical and unsustainable human spaceflight is.

Jack Kennedy reports on efforts to make space tourism operations in Virginia as liability friendly as possible: Va. Spaceflight Liability & Immunity Act Becoming More "Bullet Proof" - Spaceports - Feb.7.08
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Will Pomerantz reports on mods to the Google Lunar X PRIZE website and then goes on to discuss panorama shot-making and a cool robot arm project: Site Redesign, Panoramics, and Robotic Arms - X PRIZE Foundation.

I wish Burt a speedy recovery from his surgery on Thursday.
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Meanwhile, the report by CAL/OSHA on the accident has been released to the press (though, I can't find it on their website):
/-- Report leaves Scaled Composites blast a mystery - New Scientist - Feb.7.08
/-- Scaled Composites' explosion investigation points to oxidiser tank failure - Flight Global - Feb.7.08
/-- Report details deadly blast at Mojave spaceship builder test site - AP/San Jose Mercury News - Feb.7.08

So the exact cause is still unknown and may remain so. Charles Lurio in a recent newsletter said that one "experienced observer" told him "that there were previously no indications that an accident under the particular circumstances were even possible" and "'[Scaled’s] only crime was in not being omniscient'”. I'll note that though they are rare, there have been a handful of explosions with N2O2 over the past few decades - see this list of accidents.

Charles says,

One should note that - largely because of its ability to self-detonate - nitrous oxide has every now and then created unhappy surprises whose causes are difficult or impossible to explain. This may turn out to have been the case at Mojave. If in the end no cause for that incident is identifiable, Scaled should perhaps consider an alternative oxidizer for its hybrid; liquid oxygen (LOX) may be less convenient to transport and manage but doesn’t have nitrous’ particular unpredictabilities.

Congratulations to NASA on the successful launch of Atlantis. Hope this sets the pattern for the other 5 Shuttle launches planned for this year.
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Ian O'Neill posts the first installment of a series at Universe Today about the construction of a lunar settlement: Building a Base on the Moon: Part 1 - Challenges and Hazards - Universe Today - Feb.7.08 (via Space Pragmatism).

New Scientist reports on the use of Atlas V for flights to the Bigelow stations: No major hurdles to upgrade Atlas V rockets for people - New Scientist Space- Feb.07.08.

The article includes statements from Jon Goff, who has been following the Atlas V for people story ever since Lockheed Martin presented papers on the subject at a conference in 2006:
/-- LM Atlas V Man Rating Paper - Selenian Boondocks - Sept.18.06
/-- Atlas V for Space Tourism? - Selenian Boondocks - Sept.23.06
/-- Lockheed/Bigelow Space Tourism Deal - Selenian Boondocks - Sept.23.06

As Rand reports - Best Wishes - Transterrestrial Musings - Burt Rutan is having surgery today. Some of the reports from the SS2/WK2 debut last week mentioned that he had been ill recently. Sure hope everything goes well. Best wishes from me as well.

Orbiting Frog hosts the latest Carnival of Space.

The Shuttle Atlantis with the ESA Columbus module is scheduled to launch today at 2:45 p.m. EST but bad weather might intervene:
/-- STS-122 Shuttle Report | Mission Status Center - Spaceflight Now
/-- Space Shuttle Atlantis to Launch European Lab Today - SPACE.com
/-- Shuttle launch a go, but weather may intervene - Houston Chronicle

Ken Davidian, who has been running NASA's Centennial Challenges program, sent the following announcement:

On October 1, 2006, the Centennial Challenges (CC) program was transferred from the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) to the Innovative Partnerships Program Office within NASA HQ as part of another program called Technology Infusion. Since that date, I have been splitting my time between ESMD and CC. It was not until the beginning of this calendar year 2008 that a Program Executive for IPP's Technology Infusion (TI) work was hired and brought on-board. This new person is Andy Petro and he will be running Centennial Challenges. Please make an effort to welcome Andy when you see him at conferences and at competition events. He's got a very strong background and will do a great job running all of TI, not just CC.

As for me, I will be supporting Andy as needed, but now I will be able to devote more of my time to my "other full-time job" within ESMD on the creation and implementation of a new Commercial Development Policy. Part of my ESMD job will be to maintain ties with the competitions that relate to exploration technologies, so I'll still be involved, albeit in a new role and with a different perspective. I've had a great time working on Centennial Challenges over the past 4 years, and I look forward to seeing all the great accomplishments this program will deliver!

He includes a list of the current challenges:

Competition: 2008 Regolith Excavation Challenge
Allied Organization (AO): California Space Education and Workforce Institute (CSEWI)
AO URL: www.csewi.org
AO Point of Contact: Matt Everingham, Nick Pelster
Total 2008 Purse: $750,000
Event Dates: August 2-4, 2008
Event Location: University of California, San Luis Obispo
Challenge URL: www.csewi.org/regolith
Competition Status: Registration open.
Other Information: A Request For Information has been issued to advertise the availability of the "sandbox" that holds the JSC-1a (lunar regolith simulant) for teams or any interested entity.

Virgin Galactic is looking at various revenue generating ways to take advantage of the SpaceShip Two simulator and the White Knight Two : Virgin considers SpaceShipTwo/White Knight II pilot tuition - Flight Global. I wonder what this will cost?

The US Federal Aviation Administration has informed Flight that it will require WK2 to be certified before it is used for anything other than as a launch platform for SS2.

[Update: Rand Simberg discusses WK2 certification: Regulatory Issues For Virgin - Transterrestrial Musings]
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Rob Coppinger gets some additional info on European human space transport system studies: More Crew Space Transportation System details - Hyperbola

The serious questions over NASA's decision to spend $10B+ to build Ares 1/Orion are finally starting to get broader public attention : Critics say NASA's new rocket Ares, which is to take astronauts to the moon, is flawed: Ares is supposed to take astronauts to the moon, but early reports raise concerns - Orlando Sentinel - Feb.6.08.

I've frequently cited the factor of 20 difference in development costs between Ares/Orion and the SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon program as evidence of the wastefulness of the former. However, despite the fact that NASA's review committees have consistently held the F9/Dragon to be technically viable, there is always the claim that NASA must have Ares/Orion as its primary transportation project because the F9 might fail. (I'll note that even with a factor of 10 overrun to get F9/Dragon flying, NASA would still save around $5B.)

The Bigelow-ULA announcement now shows that even a mainstream aerospace company with a proven launcher can provide a viable alternative to Ares/Orion at a similar fraction of the cost. Eventually, NASA will have to stop claiming that its internal studies prove that only Ares 1 can launch the exploration system it wants to build and instead start modifying that system's architecture to match the available low cost launchers. This will have the win-win affect of eliminating the huge cost (and long development time) of Ares/Orion and further lowering the operational costs of those launchers by increasing their flight rates.
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A reader points to a NASA solicitation that says that if you have a US based ISO 9001/2000 certified launch system, you can become part of NASA's Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) program, which has been in action since 1999:
/-- NASA Launch Services Revision C - SpaceRef - Feb.1.08
/-- NASA Launch Services Revision C, Solicitation: RFP10-99-0021REVC

"The Executive Summary also conveys NASA's intent to utilize commercial provider's capabilities and processes to the maximum extent possible." I assume this has worked OK with NASA's unmanned science payloads and it would seem that it also obligates the agency to use any commercial crew capable launchers to the maximum extent possible as well.

Jeff Foust reports on an event in D.C. in which Jim Muncy and Lori Garver discussed the space policies of the leading presidential candidates: Trading places - Space Politics
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Space Prizes blog posts the plan for the Centennial Challenges program in the proposed 2009 budget: Centennial Challenges in the 2009 Budget Proposal - Space Prizes - Feb.5.08. This current challenges are covered with previous money. The new $4M would allow for some new competitions.
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DARPA gets money for the Blackswift hypersonic vehicle and other "mad science" projects: DARPA Nabs Big Bucks for Mach 6 Planes, Giant Robotic Blimps, Next-Gen Networks - Wired.com - Feb.5.08

Florida would certainly welcome launch operations in support of the Bigelow stations: Plans for space hotel may bring jobs to Brevard - floridatoday.com
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European space officials tell Rob Coppinger that there will be no Soyuz seats available for space tourists following a final oppportunity in the spring of 2009: ISS tourism trips to end with April 2009 flight - Flight Global. However, Space Adventures disputes this and says it is negotiations for rides after 2009.