Lynx notes

So does this mean that Xerus has been overtaken by Lynx?

Posted by Ferris valyn at 03/26/08 08:23:49

This was the big announcement?

Actually this worries me as I thought the Phase II SBIRP was a done deal when that Angel investors group bought into XCor. But based on this article they are still working out the details. This is critical as without it I don't see them getting the 10 million they need to build Lynx. This looks more like a PR move to get the AFRL moving on the Phase II SBIRP and get some investors to open their pockets. I hope it works as the Lynx looks cool.

BTW its ability to rapidly launch a mini-sat would make it a wicked satellite killer. I wonder if this is the USAF response to the Navy's satellite shoot down last month :-)

Posted by anon at 03/26/08 09:20:09

Maybe they can open a niche market with the Lynx. Cheaper and easier to operate than the "touch real space/100km" Virgin/Scaled offer, and with front view experience near pilot like. After all, Russians are selling jet-fighter rides to 20-30 km high, and 61 km altitude or so is still very impressive. Perhaps, they could make a deal with Scaled to use a White Knight 2 for air launching and extended altitude, but this will negate the cheaper ride price. Wish them luck and money.

Posted by Gabriel at 03/26/08 10:17:05

This is all well and good - XCOR is a serious player - but the net effect of this announcement is that another firm has entered a game that has yet to begin, with the usual caveats (i.e., funding and technicals must both pan out) and the usual timeline (2 years). We have: Virgin Galactic, held back by the insufficiently understood explosive properties of nitrous-oxide; Blue Origin, from which little has been heard in quite a while (and take that as you will); EADS, whose commitment to the endeavor is notional at best; Benson, which is not funded; and now XCOR, which depends on the finalization of an Air Force contract and various other vicissitudes to even begin vehicle construction. I must say I find little evidence of progress in this announcement, it simply adds another variable to the equation. However, I do like the convergence in vehicle design we've been seeing - firms seem to all be converging on certain aspects that may eventually become standard.

Posted by Brian Swiderski at 03/26/08 10:17:06

Convergence? The design has yet to be proven. The only reason it is being used is because it exists and is another example of the lack of progress

Posted by GM at 03/26/08 11:12:24

Meant to add that the design convergence could be no different than bi-wings of old.

Posted by GM at 03/26/08 11:15:17

Anon,
The angel investor group announcement happened back before the Phase II awards, back shortly after Phase I work started. The Phase II award thing has been a lot more recent than that. I'm not positive, but it's probably been within the past month or so. So no, the negotiations aren't dragging out by any stretch of the imagination. The timing is pretty normal.

Brian, the negotiations are typical, and I imagine should be wrapped up soon. They're flight testing the engines and pumps they'll be using right now. The main work they have is the new airframe and new tanks. For instance, I give them a lot more credibility than say Rocketplane claiming "2 years". XCOR is a super-conservative (when it comes to PR) group, they wouldn't say two years if they weren't pretty darned sure they had all their ducks lined up in a row.

~Jon

~Jon

Posted by Jonathan Goff at 03/26/08 13:32:21

So basically they just need to find the matching portion for the Phase II. That is good news and should be workable given the high leverage Phase II would offer investors.

Note that tourism is likely a side show for the Lynx even if it has all the New Spacers excited. Its main mission will likely be USAF R&D and high altitude research. Good solid revenue streams based on predictable government funding. Tourism will just be the frosting on the cake once the flight tests and research are done and after the USAF work has reduced the rest and costs.

Of course given the rate the competitors are progressing XCor may well be the only game in town when they do offer it. So not reaching "legal space" may not be a negative if there are no firms left in the market.

Posted by anon at 03/26/08 14:35:39

I thought Phase II SBIRs are only about .75M dollars? Matching investor funds won't get them to ten million.

Posted by anon2 at 03/26/08 14:54:35

No, but it will get them started, with the prospects of follow-on USAF contracts.

And who knows? The USAF may even buy an airframe or two. Since they don't go into Space NASA wouldn't have any grounds for blocking the USAF from operating them.

Posted by anon at 03/26/08 16:21:49

In any case, I see hints in the Lynx of future personal spacecraft, so I'm excited about the concept of smaller and simpler. Nothing says later versions all have to be larger.

Posted by Brian Swiderski at 03/26/08 19:18:28

Starting to wonder if I read the same press releases as some of the other commenters here ^_^;

Sure one always wishes for more but I think it's all pretty good news (both the rocket-plane and the engines) and certain aspects of the design are interesting (like the "duck beak"/"banana nose" design) and might hint at the direction/solutions they're aiming for as they climb ever higher (first to suborbital and then beyond).

It's very a XCOR approach, some of the hints dropped pre-release make a lot of sense now ^_^

Posted by Habitat Hermit at 03/26/08 23:55:42

That should read "It's very much a XCOR approach...".

Posted by Habitat Hermit at 03/26/08 23:57:03

Not to beat a dead horse, but all of the headlines and press from XCOR says the following (which was taken from Popular Science): "XCOR Unveils Suborbital Space Vehicle" Introducing the Lynx, a two-seat rocket built for space tourism ...

We should be very clear; IT IS NOT a suborbital space vehicle (unless you expand that definition to include airplanes) and IT IS NOT a "two-seat vehicle built for SPACE tourism ..."

I like what they are doing, it will be a thrilling ride and it will lead to more advances but let's be honest with ourselves and the public.

Posted by Lisa Ellis at 03/27/08 06:23:09

Lisa,

If you read the press release, you would have seen that the Phase Two version would be capable of reaching space, I do not know why your sole posting on this board is to continually point out something that anyone who read the briefing clearly understands.

Posted by Mike Puckett at 03/27/08 06:45:48

I tend to worry that the price point is awful high.

The Rusians sell MIG-31 rides right now for
$25K, it strikes me that if Lynx will got to 200K
you are probably closer to $50K per ride then
$100K/ride.

This will make the business model a lot sportier.

Posted by anonymous at 03/27/08 09:22:44

Maybe we should start measuring price points in dollars per meter ($/m).

Posted by amonymous at 03/27/08 10:30:23

Hey Mike,

Did you read the title that I pulled off of Popular Science? My point is simple, I understand completely what XCOR is doing and I like it. But let's not mislead anybody and let's make sure we are honest. The Lynx vehicle they show is not built for space tourism anymore than the Russian Mig 31. But they do say it is built for space tourism. That is why I point it out. Phase II is but that is not identified in the headline.

Never be afraid to be honest and forthright. I talked with a dozen people today and they thought it was great that XCOR was going to be flying people to space for half the cost of Virgin. Intentionally or not, that is how this press release played out. Sorry if that makes you uncomfortable.

By the way, as an analogy. If you read completely the majority of reports on man made global warming you will see that there is almost no data to support the headlines that accompany the report. This kind of stuff harms us in the long run so we should be completely honest with the public.

Ok, I'm out. You can take or leave my soap box.

Posted by Lisa Ellis at 03/27/08 11:00:08

I understand your concern Lisa but feel it likely unfounded.

If I had to venture a guess, I would wager the XCOR crew ar a bunch of really good people who would not intentionally mislead anyone. They have always been well regarded amongst their peers.

As someone else said, they underpromise and overdeliver. I feel confident they will be accurate in their representations.

Posted by Mike Puckett at 03/27/08 13:03:15

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