For Ares I/Orion, 2015 is slip, slip, slipping away...

Chris Bergin reports on serious schedule and overrun problems with the Ares 1/Orion programs: Ares/Orion slipping up to 18 months - Shuttle extension gains upper hand - NASASpaceFlight.com

NASA’s Constellation Program (CxP) will conduct a “Content and Schedule” summit meeting in the next few months, after it was evaluated their current schedules are “broken”. The meeting will aim to protect against a slip that is estimated to be as serious as 18 months, or outright cancellation for Ares I. Meanwhile, the push for extending the shuttle program by at least two years is gaining serious momentum.

And later in the article,

Those acceleration options have since fallen by the wayside, with the worst case cost estimate coming in at around $7 billion just to bring the program back to the 2007 target of a 2014 launch of Orion 2. The priority now is to attempt to find a “magic solution” of bringing Ares/Orion in with a shot of making the March, 2015 IOC date. Avoiding further slips to the right is the goal, as opposed to acceleration of the schedule.

The situation with Ares is known in key areas of the Agency, with a “9th Floor” NASA HQ effort already taking place to evaluate the viability of cancelling Ares I, and replacing the launch vehicle with an EELV (Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle) - such as an Atlas V Heavy or a Delta IV Heavy - whilst moving the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) effort towards concentrating on Ares V.

NASA managers have alternative options, including COTS-D, which would initiate SpaceX into bringing their Dragon manned vehicle on line as a bufferzone during the gap. However, while NASA are supportive of SpaceX’s efforts, sources claim it would take a major leap of faith to hand the task of buffering the gap to such a ‘new’ space flight company.

[Update Mar.28.09: Comments from Rand Simberg: Are You As Shocked As I Am? - Transterrestrial Musings - Mar.27.09]

Posted 03/27/09 | 16:40:57 by TopSpacer | Filed under: NASA Exploration Systems

Comments

The problem here is that NASA has put all of their proverbial eggs in one basket.

For SpaceX's sake, I hope that they don't become the only viable alternative here, although it seems like Elon Musk is the only private individual who is going after the manned orbital spaceflight market. Not without good reasons either, as a proven market beyond NASA isn't really in the cards. SpaceX made a gamble and it looks like it will pay off, but I'd be afraid of a complete government take-over of the Dragon spacecraft.

Is there any possibility that Orbital might try for the manned spaceflight system, or are they only going for unmanned cargo? Other companies like Scaled Composites that are interested in orbital spaceflight only have paper studies, and even that is stretching the definition of the term... more like engineering wish lists with a few numbers put down that are semi-realistic.

Posted by Robert Horning at 03/27/09 18:25:53

maybe... someone, someday... will (finally) admits that I've already said that YEARS AGO in my articles, forums' posts and blogs' comments... here and elsewere on the web... !!!!!!!!

Posted by every day more... THE TRUTH at 03/27/09 20:15:14

Its a right decision update shutlle, and work on another alternative. May be scramjet launcher are the key to develop affordable space. Work on a new propulsion system for space exploration. Old rocket propulsion go nowhere for space exploration, Nasa must develop innovative and revolutionary system before going to explore space.

Posted by darksidius at 03/28/09 01:37:58

I for one am utterly stunned at this development! I mean who could have possibly foreseen it! :-)

Darksidius,
Considering the massive amount of research and development time needed to perfect a cutting edge alternative (such as scramjets), we can make the "old rocket propulsion" technology cheaper and safer while the other better technologies that you advocate are being developed. Yes, develop the better technologies, but use the technology already in our possession in the most effective manner while we develop those alternatives of which you (and I too) are so fond.

Posted by Rick Boozer at 03/28/09 10:06:04

GM (THE TRUTH),
Quit posting your lies. You have not revealed Ares I's current problems. You were not the first to say that Ares I has any problems. That has been done by many other people and not you. In fact, the problems that you describe do not exist.
Your website does not have one grain of truth

Posted by Max-Que at 03/28/09 10:54:15

However, while NASA are supportive of SpaceX’s efforts, sources claim it would take a major leap of faith to hand the task of buffering the gap to such a ‘new’ space flight company.

---

Nasa is gibing spaceX lots for very little
it would be foolish to increase this

Posted by anonymous at 03/28/09 14:00:47

Ares/orion is in a day for day slip since
program start.

That should be a real sign the program is in thrash

Posted by anonymous at 03/28/09 14:33:05

Everyday that goes by without a new head of NASA just makes me feel like the Obama Administration does not care about space at all. I feel abandoned by my country. I had a vision of a new America. "Change we can believe in" and "Green Jobs" to me, meant making Colossal Carbon Tubes in the 18 mile long variety, suitable for a stationary space elevator on earth in the next ten years, not decades away. Such an earth based space elevator would cut the cost of space transportation by three orders of magnitude and make sunsats more than economical. I want to drive an electric car powered by wind, the sun, and sunsats. I want to live in a world with a moon base and a mars colony starting now. Guys like General Worden think this is just a fantasy like santa claus. I don't, and who ever heads NASA should still have the dream too. The dream is still alive.

Posted by Tony Rusi at 03/29/09 00:28:49

What did Pete Worden do to deficate in your wheaties?

Posted by Mike Puckett at 03/29/09 09:40:51

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