HobbySpace - Stairway to Space

Yes, I think such a scenario is quite possible, if not likely, and below I offer what I consider a plausible timeline for it. The sequence assumes step-by-step, incremental development in which each step requires:

Most importantly, progress up this stairway to space depends primarily on reinvestment of profits made from the markets developed at each step. (Demonstration of positive cash flow also makes raising additional investments far easier.)

As I discussed before, starting small and simple is actually the normal way that industries develop. Profits are reinvested incrementally to improve products steadily so that over time they become very powerful. Personal computers, for example, started as hobby projects in peoples basements and garages. Even up to the early 1990s, PC's were not considered a threat to workstations and mainframes. Now they dominate the industry. Sub-orbital vehicles could easily become the PC version of rocket transportation that brings spaceflight to the masses.

Note that this is only a scenario or thought experiment intended to explore the feasibility of such private space development. It's certain, of course, that reality will be quite different. (The problem with the future is that it's hard to predict!) The particular costs, prices, and market sizes mentioned are just guesses and not derived from any business model computations. See, however, the notes below on why I believe the guesses are reasonable ones.

The timeline focuses on the development of low cost space transportation. The Access to Space column highlights the steps from basic X Prize type sub-orbital vehicles to orbital vehicles. The Market Drivers column lists the sources of income for the developers of these vehicles. The Other Developments column gives a sampling of other private space developments happening in parallel to those in space transportation.

I will modify and update the timeline periodically as developments progress. The reference section at the bottom provides materials and discussions to support the above assumptions.

The Private Space Development Timeline
Period	Access to Space	Market Drivers	Other Developments
2003 - 2004	X Prize vehicles begin sub-orbital flights leading to a winner before the Jan.2005 deadline. Commercial sub-orbital vehicle development starts	X Prize money and glory Development of vehicles for space tourism	TransOrbital sends a commercial spacecraft into Lunar orbit. 2 tourists per year go to the ISS aboard Soyuz transports
2005-2006	One or more commercial sub-orbital vehicles begin regular flights carrying 1-2 passengers and other payloads on each trip.	Main sub-orbital market is tourism but additional markets include High altitude imaging & reconnaissance Micro-gravity & other scientific payloads Release of missile defense targets Air show exhibitions	Orbital Recovery demonstrates comsat rendezvous, re-boost, and station-keeping services TransOrbital and/or LunarCorp puts a rover on the lunar surface. A private company, e.g. Constellation Services using a Kistler K-1, begins cargo deliveries to the ISS.
2007-2008	Development of commercial sub-orbitals with 3-4 passenger capacity Sub-orbital carries a second stage that delivers small payloads to orbit (e.g. RASCAL scale)	Sub-orbital transportation grows to ~$100M to $200M a year industry carrying 1000-2000 space tourists per year plus serving the other sub-orbital markets listed above. The small payload delivery to orbit develops into a niche market.	MirCorp begins construction of its Mini-station. Assembly of satellites on the ISS for commercial LEO and GEO services begins.
2009-2010	Development of commercial sub-orbitals with 5-6 passenger capacity Development of a 2-stage orbital system using one of the previously developed sub-orbitals as the second stage.	Sub-orbital tourism grows to ~500 million dollar a year industry with 10000+ passengers per year plus the other sub-orbital markets listed above. The success of the Russian program that has delivered 2 space tourists a year to the ISS program at $20 million a shot attracts investment for higher rate, lower cost orbital tourism ventures.	Mir-Corp's Mini-station launched and initially occupied by cosmonauts and space tourists arriving by Soyuz. Bigelow Aerospace begins hardware development of a space habitat based on inflatable, Transhab style structures.
2011-2012	Orbital space tourism trips begin on a two stage RLV.	Several hundred customers sign up for orbital space trips at ~$1 million per seat for trip to the Mini-station. Private vehicles also deliver tourists and researchers for short term stays on the ISS.	The Bigelow Aerospace space hotel reaches orbit either as a free flyer or as an attachment node to the ISS. Spacedev sends a spacecraft to an asteroid to prospect for possible mining development.
2012-2014	Orbital space tourism trips to the Bigelow Aerospace space hotel.	Several thousand customers sign up for orbital space trips at ~0.5 million per seat for trip to an expanded Mini-station and the Bigelow hotel.	Plans for the first tourist trip to orbit the Moon begin serious development. Products made on the private space stations, such as exotic glass and metallic artworks, begin selling on earth.

The above timeline relies on private companies raising tens to hundreds of millions of dollars. These are far below the multi-billions usually mentioned in discussions of space development but still significant amounts of money. Can small startup companies obtain these kinds of funds?

As indicated above, a company with a successful sub-orbital business does not need to generate all the funds itself if it wants to build an orbital vehicle. The demonstration of profits from the sub-orbital business will instead allow it to attract most of the funds from other investors. In fact, it might simply issue a bond with interest paid from the current cash flow.

Even many space advocates have taken slowly to the proposals of sub-orbital vehicles and tourism. In the past year or two, however, sub-orbital has begun to attract closer attention and increasing enthusiasm.

This indicates a market of, at least, several thousand customers. That should be more than sufficient to maintain several vehicles that would each carry 1-2 passengers and fly every couple of days. At prices in the $98k range, this indicates a market quickly reaching $100 million per year with traffic in the range of 1000 passengers per year.

Of course, this will require that the vehicles need low development costs (tens of millions of dollars at most) and low operating costs for the companies to be profitable.

The fact that the trip will only last half hour to an hour can be supplemented with a training period, including simulator experiences, and a gradual dramatic buildup to the flight. Even at only a half hour, riding a rocket across the edge of space will be the thrill of a lifetime for most people. In fact, like starting with snorkeling rather than scuba gear and a weeks stay in an underwater habitat, many people may actually prefer this kind of short test encounter with space travel rather than a long orbital trip.

Even if tens of millions of dollars are found, can startup companies develop robust, reliable, and safe sub-orbital vehicles with such sums? The signs are positive:

If sub-orbital vehicles are successfully developed with such funding, does it necessarily follow that orbital vehicles can then be developed for something in the $0.5B to $1B range? Again, the signs are positive:

Other than the roadblocks mentioned above, most of which are outside of anyone's or any company's control, there don't seem to be any showstoppers to keep private companies from reaching orbit.

There is no need for discovery of an unobtainium material or magical new propulsion system. As pointed out by many other people, the key is a market big enough to get the process of private development started and to sustain it. I believe that the key market is sub-orbital tourism.

Certainly, the timeline could be stretched out. For example, the time it takes the space tourism market to reach $0.5 billon per year might take several more years than indicated.

However, the point is that, surprisingly, the stairway is climbable. The financial and technical steps are achievable as shown by the fact that similar step sizes have been scaled several times already by private companies.